Posted by: Dark Defender | October 28, 2008

Sarah the Rogue story heralds the start of the 2012 race UPDATED

You’ve seen reports on how McCain staffers are whining about Sarah going “off message” or rogue right?

2012 talk already, really?

Sarah: 2012 talk already, really?

Maybe not if you havent read this and this.

It appears we now know the source of these leaks: Romney staffers on the McCain campaign (as Rich Lowry notes today McCain doesn’t have a lot of people loyal to him alone, cause well hes annoying).

Quoting the Prowler:

ROMNEY ANTI-PALIN
Former Mitt Romney presidential campaign staffers, some of whom are currently working for Sen. John McCain and Gov. Sarah Palin‘s bid for the White House, have been involved in spreading anti-Palin spin to reporters, seeking to diminish her standing after the election. “Sarah Palin is a lightweight, she won’t be the first, not even the third, person people will think of when it comes to 2012,” says one former Romney aide, now working for McCain-Palin. “The only serious candidate ready to challenge to lead the Republican Party is Mitt Romney. He’s in charge on November 5th.”

….

Some former Romney aides were behind the recent leaks to media, including CNN, that Governor Sarah Palin was a “diva” and was going off message intentionally. The former and current Romney supporters further are pushing Romney supporters for key Republican jobs, including head of the Republican National Committee.

Awesome so the election isnt even over, we havent actually lost yet, but already we are jockeying for 2012 positioning.

Well I wanna play to!

So here’s my early handicapping of the 2012 race.

At present it will have three main contenders, Sarah, Romney and Huckabee.  Might jump in and have a decent chance: Jindal or Pawlenty.

Among the three main contenders I see:

Romney – Positioning himself as economics guy or possibly moderate man.  I also see either him losing in the primary or losing the general election, because hes phony, there is no there there, he was a liberal Republican while Governor, then became a social conservative while running for President.  He grates on people cause hes so fake, one way or another he loses.  None the less his almost won status gives him cred to make a real run for the nomination and his personal fortune gives me an early fund raising advantage and he already has a loyal organization in place (as the above story shows).

Huckabee– Very like able, the camera loves him.  Doesn’t have Romney’s money but does have a potential organization in the form of evangelicals flocking to his bad ass preacher self.  Also unlike Romney will be keeping himself in the public eye via his show on Fox News channel.  He could win the primary but will have to destroy Sarah to do it (see below) I don’t see him winning the general election though cause even with some distance from Bush people are going to go eer no thanks to a preacher in the White House,

Sarah– Being connected to McCain is both her greatest advantage and disadvantage.  She would be a dark horse candidate(an Alaskan governor psssha) if she hadn’t already had national exposure in this campaign, but undoing the media’s demonization of her will not be easy and she will have to spend the next four years doing it. 

Her and Huckabee will share the same base in social conservatives, if one of them doesn’t defeat the other they could split the primary vote allowing Romney to get the nomination.  At the moment however she is the most popular person in the Republican party (among all factions save the elite one), has a legit claim on the nomination and if she wants it, has to be considered the front runner.

Note to readers and self- Remember this post and reread it 3 1/2 years from now and laugh at me.

UPDATE: Politico is reporting, that Sarah “might be” preparing to run in 2012. 

And Mike Allen is reporting more infighting, the Romney people (my assumption due to the above) have escalated from calling her a “diva” to calling her a “whack job”, way to show your loyalty to the ticket and the party guys.  If McCain loses its going to be at least partly due to your incompetence and disloyalty.

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Responses

  1. You should see Newsweek’s 2012 poll.

    Romney 41%
    Huck 31%
    Sarah 20%

    I doubt she is the front runner as you say.

  2. Thanks for the comment and welcome to the site Brett.

    I looked up the poll, you are correct, but I dont really care what polls say (especially 3 years ahead of time).

    The polls had Rudy as the front runner for about 2 years, until you know actual votes started being cast.

    She is the only canidate who has been actually tested in a general election campaign, and is very popular within the Republican party.

    If she spends the time and energy preparing for a 2012 run, she will be the front runner.

  3. Then I’ll just agree to disagree. I think she’s the only candidate who has NOT been tested. You think the opposite.

    Anybody (even you and I) could accept a phone call to be VP. It requires no testing. Running a campaign is another story. Huck and Romney have 14 debates and hundreds of interviews, and have to (gasp) figure out their own policy stance. Sarah has 1 debate and 3 interviews and is not allowed to make policy or speak her mind.

    She’ll compete, but, has to play catch up in 2012.

  4. You make a fair point that she hasnt ran a national campaign. She has been in the national spotlight however in a way neither Romney nor Huckabee has.

    And she has ran a campaign for Governor (as both of them has) its not like shes a total neophyte.

    But I think you are correct that she will have to work to get the nomination, she will need to spend the next three years travelling the country, setting positions and earning gravitas. I totally agree with you there.

    Where I think we disagree is I assume if she does that she will be the front runner by the time primary season starts in earnest, obviously if she hangs out in Alaska hoping for it to be handed to her it wont happen.


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