Posted by: Dark Defender | October 27, 2008

State of the race and final election prediction

OK as promised, I will now do a poll free analysis of the race, and as an added bonus I will give my oh so anxiously awaited predictions.  But as a twist I’m going to do it brain/heart/gut style.  What is that? A system used on survivor sucks to discuss and predict the winners of reality shows.

Why am I doing this? Because thats how bad it is, out there in election land.  That and I’m a dork.  But mostly because of the pathetic state of our politics… really.

OK so here we go:

Brain: My brain says Obama is going to win.  My brain has said this since he clinched the nomination.  Before that my brain said Hillary was going to be our next President, but well that didn’t quite go as planned.

The point is its a year that really favors democrats.  The reasons scarcely need recounting but I will do it anyways (briefly):

Bush’s vast unpopularity- No one likes Bush, from liberals who have always hated him, to conservatives who  clung to his sinking ship until his immigration reform proposal, Bush really doesn’t have a lot of supporters left.  There is a broad consensus that he is a failed President, and while I don’t think its entirely fair (or unfair, FYI I voted for him in 2000 but not 2004).  Thats hardly the point.

Whether its fair or not, Bush is about as popular syphilis, and that reflects on other Republicans.

The bad economy- the economy is in the toilet and as always fairly or not the party in power gets the blame.  This is another big drag on Republicans separate from yet reinforcing the Bush drag. 

Money- Obama has more money than God and has been carpet bombing the battleground states with ads for weeks.  I’m not sure about the ratio of Obama to McCain ads, but I’ve seen reports that in some states Obama has been outspending McCain 10-1.  That’s a huge advantage, its sad to think an election can be bought but, well raise you hand if you don’t believe that ads influence people? Yeah that’s what I thought.

Before we move on and our liberal readers get ready to bombard the comment section with objections of “But Obama’s money comes from the people! The Grassroots, how dare you criticize the Messiah!”, check out this article about how Obama’s campaign being funded by small donors is a myth.

The media- The media has been completely in the tank for Obama, from late night comics, to reporters to Hollywood types the media have been fervent supporters of Obama.  The MSM is always for the democrats, but I think (and I think most would agree) its gone to a new and scary level this year.  All of this free positive coverage of Obama and negative coverage of McCain is akin to tens of millions (if not hundreds) of additional dollars being spent on his behalf, it is a huge factor.

The Obama campaign- Obama has ran a good campaign, I’m not going to go through all the maneuvers but the bottom line is I think hes been able to reach a level of slickness not seen since Clinton.  Obama is able to have it both ways on so many issues, he has that certain something that makes every one believe he is lying to the other guy.

Hes for peace! (yet advocates invading Pakistan)

Hes for tax cuts for 90% of the country! (yet advocates tax increases, and constantly blames Bush’s tax cuts for all problems)

Hes against the Bush deficits(yet has an ambitious expensive domestic program he doesn’t explain how he plans to fund)  

They say you can fool all of the people some of the time, or some of the people all of the time, right now Obama seems to be able to fool most people, it wont last but while it does its powerful.

So taking all of these advantages together, my brain says Obama has to win, if he doesn’t hes dumber than a box of hair.  Seriously, given the above advantages don’t you think your average homeless junkie could manage a democrat’s campaign and win?

Heart: I want McCain to win.  Not so much for him, Ive never really been a big fan.  Campaign finance reform was unconstitutional and wrong, and he was annoying on other issues as well.  But I do really like Sarah Palin and would like to see her have a platform to run from in 2012 (er I mean 2016 if McCain serves 2 terms.. fingers crossed). 

Media demonization not withstanding shes an intelligent woman with a track record of good governance, I think she could be a real star in the future and enduring McCain is worth giving her that chance.

Never miss a chance to post a Sarah pic

Never miss a chance to post a Sarah pic

 

And of course McCain would at least provide a balance to the democrat controlled Congress, and that isnt a small thing.  If we look back on recent history one party having a lock on the Presidency and Congress has been a disaster each time, Bush 2002-2006, Clinton 1993-1995, Carter’s entire term.  Really, good things don’t come out of united government. 

Also of course Obama scares me, Obama with a democrat controlled congress is even scarier.  Scary and disturbing, in a “Why does my bosses’s wife keep touching my leg?” kind of way. 

I think Obama and a democrat congress would be very bad for the country, hes inexperienced in foreign affairs and his philosophy appears to be one of idealism, domestically he proposes tax increases, giveaways and regulation which seems likely to amount to a New Deal 2 (and remember the New Deal at best failed to end the depression, and many think it actually prolonged it). 

So my heart says please let Sarah and the white haired guy win.

Gut: The Republican party has won 7 of the last 10 Presidential elections, and there is a reason, the country is philosophically center right.  The GOP just doesn’t usually lose. 

Also did you know McCain is a maverick? Seriously, McCain is really good at defying the odds and coming back from the brink.  Hes done is personally and hes done it politically.  You shouldn’t bet against this guy.

Further Obama’s past performance shows he is not a good closer, in the primaries he managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory repeatedly and allowed HIllary to keep the contest going until the end.  A really good politican (like Bill Clinton), would have wrapped it up much quicker or found a way to force/entice his opponent from the race.

Lastly, remember the battle is on GOP turf.  The states which Obama is counting on to win voted Republican last cycle, they are states which lean to the GOP and that inclination could easily reassert itself on election day. 

You could call this the Bradley effect, but if we see a difference between polling and voting this cycle I don’t think it will be a result of racism.  I think it will be a result of the media making people feel uncomfortable with voicing their actual opinions to pollsters (doh I referred to polls in this post, oh well at least I’m not quoting them) for fear of being seen as racist, and then they go and vote how they always intended.

So for the above reasons, I can’t shake a gut feeling that McCain is going to pull this thing off. 

My brain laughs at my gut (an experience not wholly unfamiliar to it) but I have to say my gut feeling is McCain wins. 

We will see what happens, but I do think no matter what happens, its going to be a more interesting election night than the media seems to be prepared for.  I do not expect a coronation.

Bonus prediction: No matter who wins, 2009 will be a year of great disillusionment and bitterness.

If McCain wins it will be fueled by the media scolding the public for its obvious (to the MSM) racism and will later be joined by Conservatives who will remember why they never liked McCain to begin with.

And if Obama wins it will be led by Republicans who will not accept his leadership and eventually spread to moderates and Democrats as they realize he’s not the Messiah hes a very naughty boy, er I mean just a politician.  He is going to have to make hard decisions, for example does he raise taxes in the midst of a serious recession and tank the economy, or does he abandon his domestic agenda and betray his supporters in order to keep the economy going? Heads we all lose, tails you lose.  Its going to be ugly and Joe the Prophet’s words will be remembered.

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Responses

  1. I particularly enjoyed the bonus prediction and the “Life of Brian” clip.

  2. Hey Abe, Glad you liked it, but did you catch the leisure suit larry reference? Perhaps I should get more “explict” and start talking about the Laffer curve! (google it)


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